A New, Simple Projection Model for COVID-19 Pandemic


Professor Jian LU

Chair Professor, Department of Biomedical Sciences

City University of Hong Kong


With the worldwide outbreak of coronavirus COVID-19, a simple model (for background reading, please download the article posted on medRxiv) to predict how the coronavirus pandemic will evolve in individual countries becomes important and urgent.  Our goal is to provide a prediction model for the coming days and weeks to help policy makers in different countries address the epidemic outbreak and adjust the control policies to contain the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) more effectively.  For the moment, the following countries/regeions are studied (please go to the end of this page to download the daily full analysis): China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Singapore, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, India, Indonesia, Iran, Oman, Qatar, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey, UAE, Australia, New Zealand, Sudan, Egypt, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Honduras, Peru, Canada, USA, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, Mexico, Belgium, Belarus, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, UK, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden.

Prediction for the following countries are updated every Sunday: Armenia, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Morocco, Nepal, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Austria, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Uruguay, Greece, Ethiopia, Laos, Slovakia.

Another important issue, the data are collected at 0h GMT. Due to the time difference, the data for a country in other time zones (USA, Canada) may be different than the data at 24h of the indicated day.















Data sources:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  (for all countries)

https://covidtracking.com/data/ (for states in USA)


"A New, Simple Projection Model for COVID-19 Pandemic" published on medRxiv

"Braking Force Model on Virus Transmission to Evaluate Interventions Including the Administration of COVID-19 Vaccines" published on China CDC Weekly

疫苗、封城、口罩能有效"刹"住新冠传播吗?--- 用"制动力模型"预测新冠发展趋势

Daily update (updated on 1 December 2022)

Previous Updates:

Daily update (updated on 30 November 2022)

Daily update (updated on 29 November 2022)

Daily update (updated on 28 November 2022)

Daily update (updated on 27 November 2022)

Daily update (updated on 26 November 2022)

Daily update (updated on 25 November 2022)

Daily update (updated on 24 November 2022)


To know more about Professor Lu's research:

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